Derivatives
Options & Derivatives (Layer 4)
Layer 4 is the derivatives layer. It sits on top of the yield curve and turns each forward point into a full options surface: calls and puts on the price of AI compute, with live Greeks, calendar spreads, and a volatility index.
Where Layer 2 lets you lock a rate and Layer 3 shows you where the market thinks rates are going, Layer 4 lets you price and express a view on uncertainty itself — the volatility of machine compute.
The derivatives layer
Every model family already has a forward curve — a series of (expiry, rate) points from the futures market. An option is a contract on one of those forwards: the right, but not the obligation, to transact compute at a fixed $/M strike by a given expiry. From a single forward we generate an entire board of strikes, and from the whole curve we generate a board per expiry.
What you can trade
- Calls & puts — across a ladder of strikes around each forward, for every model family (DeepSeek, Llama, Qwen, GPT, Gemini, Claude).
- Downside protection (puts) — builders buy puts to cap their exposure to sudden API-cost spikes, paying a known premium instead of absorbing open-ended risk.
- Volatility trades — speculators trade the pure volatility of a family (e.g. a straddle) without taking a directional view on the underlying capacity contract.
- Calendar spreads — market makers capture the difference between the same strike across two expiry months as the term structure of volatility shifts.
How options are priced
Because the underlying is a forward, options are priced with the Black-76 model (the forward-based form of Black-Scholes). Each contract is priced from five inputs:
- Forward (F) — the yield-curve rate at that expiry, in $/M tokens.
- Strike (K) — the fixed rate the option locks, taken from a ladder around the forward.
- Time (T) — years to expiry.
- Volatility (σ) — the family's annualized compute vol, adjusted per strike by a skew so downside puts price richer.
- Rate (r) — a risk-free rate used to discount the premium to today.
The result is a premium in $/M tokens for every call and put on the board, along with an implied-volatility smile across strikes. The forward is anchored to the live futures mark and the vol level breathes with the underlying's recent realized moves, so premia and Greeks update with the market rather than sitting on static assumptions.
Buying & settlement
You can buy any call or put straight from the chain. Pick a strike, choose a size in millions of tokens, and the premium is debited from your unified USD credit balance — the same wallet that powers chat. A call gives you the right to compute at today's price into the future: if the rate spikes above your break-even you profit, and if it doesn't the most you can lose is the premium.
- Live positions — every open position is marked-to-market against the same Black-76 surface, showing current value, P/L, and whether it's in the money.
- Close any time — sell the option back at its current premium to realize gains or cut losses before expiry; proceeds are credited straight back to your balance.
- Expiry settlement — at expiry a position settles automatically at its intrinsic value (how far in the money it finished) against the live underlying. Out-of-the-money options expire worthless, costing only the premium already paid.
Reading the Greeks
The Greeks describe how a premium reacts to the market:
| Greek | Measures | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Delta | Sensitivity to the forward moving $1/M | Directional exposure & hedge ratio |
| Gamma | How fast delta itself changes | Stability of a hedge |
| Vega | Sensitivity to a +1% change in volatility | Exposure to vol, not direction |
| Theta | One day of time decay | Cost of holding a long option |
The volatility index
Each family's front-board at-the-money volatility becomes a vol index — a "compute VIX" that measures how uncertain the market is about that model's near-term pricing. Averaged across families, it gives a single read on the volatility of the whole machine- compute economy. A rising index means the market expects bigger price swings — from a model launch, a price war, or a supply shock.
Architecture
The options surface is derived from the market below it: it prices the forwards that already exist and serves them as an options desk would. Buying, marking, and settlement run against that same surface, with premiums and payouts flowing through your USD credit balance (a paper desk — no on-chain settlement yet):
Who uses it
- Builders — buy puts to cap downside on their inference bill, converting open-ended cost risk into a known premium.
- Speculators — trade the volatility of a family directly with straddles and strangles, independent of direction.
- Market makers — earn the spread between expiries and strikes, providing liquidity to the surface.
Why it matters for $AUTO
Derivatives turn Auton from a market into a multi-dimensional financial venue. The same data moat that powers the curve powers the options surface — and it compounds:
- Options only exist because a real futures market and curve sit beneath them. Auton owns that stack end to end.
- More expiries and usage on Layers 2–3 → a richer surface → more hedgers, speculators, and market makers → more settlement flow through $AUTO.
- A volatility index positions $AUTO at the center of the machine-compute economy — the way the VIX anchors equity markets.
Status
Layer 4 is live. The pricing engine, Greeks, volatility surface, and calendar spreads run on the yield curve, and you can buy calls and puts from the chain — paying premium from your credit balance, marking positions live, closing early, and settling automatically at expiry.
This is a paper desk today: premiums and payouts move through USD credits, with the venue as counterparty. The next phase adds the writer side — sellers posting $AUTO / USDC collateral to earn premium (an $AUTO sink) — and on-chain option contracts with margined settlement.